中国 2008年市場予測

China Paperonline によると、需要と供給の増加により中国国内の紙価格は高騰し、コスト増を吸収して収益は上がるとしている。
タバコ用のSBSは10%の需要増となり、設備増は予定されていないため価格上昇の環境にある。
コート紙の収益は急増し、国産品の品質向上により輸出入の国内シフトが見込まれる。
新聞用紙は、依然供給過剰にあり、2008年の国内需要は390万トンから450万トンで、同供給能力は520万トンとみられている。
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中国 2008年市場予測” への1件のコメント

  1. Rising Cost Led to Different Perspectives for Paper Makers
    Tips: Driven by demand in lower stream sector and due to improved supply conditions, those paper grades with a strong leverage in pricing will see tremendous price increase, the speed of which will outpace cost increase and thus paper producers of such grades will increase their profitability. Experts favored SBS, coated art paper and fine paper. Restricted by capacity extension, Newsprint and containerboard have limited space for further price hikes. The price hike of these two grades will only partially offset the rising cost caused by fast price increase of waste paper. Experts believed, paper grades such as SBS, coated art paper and fine paper will show a higher prosperity index. The paper producers producing such grades are worth attention. They are Sun Paper, Chenming Paper and Bohui Paper.
    Growth of paper production decelerated
    Jan-Feb 2008, Chinese sizeable paper producers produced 11.8556 million mts of paper and paperboard, an accumulated increase of 11.8% from same period of 2007, but a decline of 13.3% compared with Jan-Feb, 2007. In 2007 Chinese sizeable paper producers produced 77.8697 million mts of mechanical paper and paperboard, up 18.10% from 2006, growth decelerated by 20% from 2006. China Paper Association estimated in its development plan that from 2005-2010, the average annual consumption growth of paper and paperboard is 7.5%. It is clear that paper capacity growth has slowed down, which is good for easing market demand and soften competition.
    Volume of imported pulp skyrocketed
    Jan 2008, China imported 950,000 mts of pulp, an increase of 41.79% from 670,000 mts in Jan. 2007. The value of imported pulp in Jan. was US$ 667 million, up 58.5% from same period of last year. Feb 2008, total pulp import was 730,000 mts, up 23.72%, at the value of US$ 521 million, month by month increase of 47.01%. The accumulated pulp import in 2007 was 8.472 million mts, at US$ 5.55 billion, up 6.5% and 26.3% respectively. In 2007, China imported a total of 22.56 million mts of waste paper, at US$ 4.04 billion, up 15%and 47.1% from 2006. The first two months of 2008 saw ample increase in pulp import and the accumulated import amount and value increased 33.8% and 53.3% respectively, showing Chinese paper sector still heavily relies on foreign pulp imports.
    Rising raw material cost putting more pressure on production cost
    In 2008 international pulp price showed an upturn. The increase ratio of softwood and hardwood for the whole year was 19.09% and 15.42%. Taking into account of currency factor, the hiking ratio of softwood and hardwood in Euro zone was 9.25% and 4% respectively. Based on average price of imported hardwood of 36 cities in China, the price surged to RMB5821/tonne from RMB 5327/tonne early in the year with hiking ratio of 9.27%. The price of waste paper in international markets showed a fast rising trend in 2007. US waste paper No.8 quoted in US$ hiked 28% throughout the year, while US waste paper No.11 soared nearly 40%. According to data from China Paper Net.com (RMB market price), hiking ratio of US waste paper No. 8 and No. 11 was 16% and 30% respectively in the entire year. The surge of fiber raw materials brought huge pressure on cost of paper makers in China. Based on publicized annual report of Chinese listed paper companies, due to rising cost triggered by surging price of raw materials, their gross profits all tumbled from a year ago. Beginning from 2008, the prices of soft wood and hard wood quoted in US$ in international markets were flat with some on the rise. The price in mid March was US$880/tonne and US$ 780/tonne. The price of wood in European markets quoted in Euro Dollar was down at first and then picked up. For instance, in the second week of Feb prices of softwood and hard wood hit record high. Afterwards, in March they dropped. At the moment the price of Euro zone is Euro 570.8/tonne for softwood and Euro 518.91/tonne for hardwood. Since 2008, price of waste paper in international markets continued it fast hiking. Right now, quotation for US waste paper No. 8 for overseas is US$255/tonne, while US waste paper No.11 soared to US$ 260/tonne. It is expected the supply of pulp will be very tight due to many factors such as shortages of wood chip as raw material for paper production, rising transport, new capacities whose speed cannot catch up with demand and inadequate operating ratio caused by Indonesia Government control on log felling, as well as Chinese government move to phase out inefficient paper mills. On top of that, from March ? May when international paper giants usually take their downtime, the price of pulp in international markets will remain at high level.
    Prosperity index differ with different sub sectors
    In latter half of 2007, in order to address rising cost, main paper grades producers in China began to raise price with each paper grade seeing some RMB 200-500/tonne price increase. In 2008 main paper grades in China remain stable in price, some even saw escalation. Experts believed the perspectives with each sub sector in Chinese paper sector will differ due to different prosperity index.
    SBS sector: Prosperity index rose. In the grade, cigarette paper remained stable, whose demand was expected to exceed 10%. As there is no capacity extension pressure, the demand-supply fundemantals are beneficial for price hikes. The speed of price increase will outpace cost. The profitability will thus be improved.
    Coated art paper: prosperity index is picking up. With strong domestic economic growth and the upcoming Beijing Olympic Games, the demand of coated art paper will keep fast increase in 2008. At the same time, with improvement in quality of paper products made in China, increase in export and import substitution will drive up prosperity index further. The overall market in China saw RMB 350/tonne increase since 2008.
    Culture paper: prosperity index kept rising. Benefited from state environmental friendly policies and enhanced administration in this regard, plus phasing out of obsolete capacities, the prosperity index of culture paper began to rise. In offset paper grades including high mid or low grade all rose nearly RMB 300/tonne this year. In book and magazine paper markets, the supply is tightening up with price quotation reaching RMB 5500/tonne, up 13.4% from RMB 4850 at the end of last year.
    Newsprint sector: low prosperity index. As the sector still suffered oversupply and fast increase in price of raw materials, it is still in low ebbs in prosperity index。After the price remained at RMB4752/ tonne for several months, the price began to climb up to RMB5300/tonn. Insiders believed recent price hike within such a short period of time was mainly attributed to capacity shift to fine paper grades that enjoyed a higher prosperity index as well as the preparation for upcoming Beijing Olympic Games. In terms of overall capacity situation in the sector, the oversupply conditions remain unchanged. At the moment the total capacity of newsprint has reached 4.5 million mts, while the actual demand from newspapers in the country is only 3.61 million mts, export amount is 600,000 mts. In all, the general demand for newsprint in the country is 4.2 million mts. It is projected the demand for newsprint will outnumber 2007 by 8%-12% to hit 3. 9 million mts and 4.5 million will be exported in 2008. It is expected the total newsprint capacity in 2008 will hit 5.2 million mts. Insiders held that newsprint will benefit from demand increase posed by Beijing Olympic Games. But because of capacity problems, the room for further price hikes is limited.
    Containerboard sector’s prosperity index declined. As there were many new containerboard projects coming on stream in recent 2 years, there were huge pressures of capacity release to the markets. Also, because of fast price hikes with main raw materials, this sub sector saw decline in prosperity index. According to mid year report of Nine Dragons, restricted by rising cost, at the sales growth of 44.2%, its net profit registered only 11.4%. Its gross profit dropped from 26% to 23.6% and net profit slipped from 20.4% to 15.8%. In order to address rising cost, the company raised price by some RMB300/tonne. On top of that, RMB appreciation affected export in Chinese light industry, which exerted negative effects on demand growth of containerboard sector. Therefore, experts were cautious about future price hike of this sub sector.

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