中国 紙パルプ業に景気減速の影響

Chinapaperonline.com のレポートによると、中国国内は元相場上昇による労賃高、自然災害などにより、輸出、投資が減少し、GDP増加率の低下、景気減速が危ぶまれている。
中国紙生産量は2000-2007年の平均成長率が13.39%、消費量は同10.72%となっており、GDP成長率を上回っている。すなわち、100億元の実質成長に対し紙需要は約700トンの増加で、1%のGDP成長に対し紙消費量は1.15%の増加となっている。
2007年11月の時点では3008社の大・中規模製紙会社があったが、現在は136社減の2827社となっている。これに応じて、大手メーカーは合計220万トンの増設を計画している。

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中国 紙パルプ業に景気減速の影響” への1件のコメント

  1. With Economy on the Down Turn, More Pressures Will Drag down Growth Rate of Chinese Paper Sector
    (Chinapaperonline.com Sept 8):It is Difficult for Chinese paper sector to play an one – man show in poor macro economic environment
    Under the background of sluggish economic environment in the world, fast RMB appreciation, rising labor cost and natural disasters, data showed, in the first 5 months of 2008, total export volume of China grew only 22.9% from same period of last year, a drop of 4.9%. Fixed asset investment in urban areas grew 25.6% year on year a decline of 0.3%. As three key stimuli for GDP growth such as investment, export and consumption, two have slowed down. Therefore, it is expected GDP growth in 2008 will decelerate and the risk of economic slow down has been increased.
    Based on statistics, from 2000-2007, average paper production growth in China was 13.39% and consumption growth was 10.72%, both were higher than growth of GDP. Consumption of paper and paperboard is pertinent to economic growth. With absolute value increasing RMB 10 billion, the demand for paper products increase around 700 mts, With GDP growing 1%, paper consumption will grow 1.15%. However, once GDP decelerates, the consumption of paper products will follow suit.
    Tycoon firms are most benefited from concentration of the sector
    In recent years, the concentration of Chinese paper sector has been enhanced and the scale of forefront paper producers is enlarging fast. In 2007, the production of top 10 paper producers in China represented nearly 25% of all paper capacities in China. From the number of sizeable paper producers, in November 2007, there were some 3008 sizeable paper makers in China. But from that time up to now, there are only 2827 sizeable paper makers left (136 firms were closed). The closure and curtailment allow more development space for large sized paper firms in China.
    Boosted by government paper policies and energy conservation & emission reduction policies, the rally of paper sector will hopefully be stepped up. Besides, based on capacity extension plan for next two yeas, the new capacity will come from listed paper giants in a concentrated manner such as Chenming Paper, Huatai Paper, Sun Paper and Bohui Paper. They have or are prepared to set up some 2.2 million mts of new capacities. The enhanced concentration of paper sector will improve the price negotiation power of lager paper producers with both upper and lower stream sectors.
    Paper producers ’Profit growth expectation is enhanced
    From fundamentals of the sector, paper producer will have better than expected performance after their key paper products witnessing price increase at the level beyond expectation. Given price hikes of paper products and rising cost of raw materials in July, the profitability of paper sector has been increased. Hence, insiders held that for the tycoon paper producers as well as paper firms that are producing paper grades that enjoy prosperity, they will enjoy a nice picture in their growth in future.

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