中国2008年品種別業況

文化用紙
旧式の設備廃棄により、文化用紙生産能力は2007年には80万5千トン、2008年に37万3千トン、2009年に17万7千トンの削減となる見込み。
SBS
不十分な生産設備投資と市場障壁を考慮すると、需給は満たされて買い手市場にすすむと期待される。
コート紙
生産設備計画をもとにすると、2007年の生産能力は410万トン、2008年は同440万トンとなっている。国内需要は2007年は375万トン、2008年は同423万トン、輸出は2007年は35万トン、2008年は17万トンと推計されている。
段ボール原紙
新生産設備は2007年に285万トン、2008年は同260万トンとなっているが、需給ギャップは継続するもよう。
新聞用紙
2007年の新設は107万トン、2008年は同50万トンで、28万トンと39万トンの供給過剰が見込まれている。
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中国2008年品種別業況” への1件のコメント

  1. Prosperity Index on Major Chinese Paper Grades in 2008
    The entire sector will see continued improvement in 2008 but there will be different cases for each sub sector.
    Culture Paper sector: benefited from pro environmental policy
    From 2006-2010, China will discard out – dated paper capacity by 2.105 million mtpy, 2.3 million mtpy, 1.065 million mtpy, 507,000 mtpy and 523,000 mtpy respectively. Among these curtails, 35% will be culture paper. As a result, culture paper sector will see capacity reduction by 805,000 mtpy,373,000 mtpy and 177,000 mtpy respectively from 2007-2009.
    SBS: change into seller’s market
    Statistics from SBS producers showed, Chinese total SBS capacity in 2006 was 2.26 million mtpy. Contribution to SBS capacity increase was from Meili Paper (300,000 mtpy, operational in October 2007 ) and Henan Xinya Paper(200,000 mtpy, operational in November 2007). Taking into consideration of inadequate capacity release in the first year and the market barrier to certain degree, it is expected capacity and consumption will be basically met and SBS is expected to change into buyer’s market.
    Thanks to gradual recovery in the sector, some Chinese producers may expand production capacity. But 2008 will be earliest time for their operation. New capacity will have little impacts on supply-demand fundemantals in SBS markets from 2007-2009.
    Coated art paper: Export helps digest overcapacity
    Experts believed coated art paper sector is experiencing a stage of slow down in capacity release, a stable demand in domestic market and booming demand from overseas market. During this period, Chinese paper mills will improve their performance.
    China produced around 3. 8 million mts of coated art paper in 2006. In recent 2 years, there was no major capacity release to the markets except 600,000 mtpy capacity produced by OJI Paper Co., which went commercial in 2007. In 2007 China produced some 4.4 million mts of coated art paper. Based on capacity release schedule, the capacity of this grade in 2007 and 2008 will be 4.1 million mts and 4.4 million mts respectively.
    From demand of the grade, China consumed 3.32 million mts in 2006, up 14.88%. With the coming of Beijing Olympic Games and World Expo Shanghai 2010, the demand growth will be maintained. Based on calculation of 135 consumption increase, China consumes 3.75 million and 4.23 million mts in 2007 and 2008 and net export is 350,000 mts and 170,000 mts in 2007 and 2008. It showed improvement in this sector and export will be guaranteed.
    Containerboard: supply gap narrowed
    Containerboard was the grade that saw swiftest increase in recent years. The demand growth was over 12% since 2006. This grade still has supply gap in China. Although the sector will produce 2.85 million mts and 2. 6 million mts of new capacity in 2007 and 2008, the slow speed in hitting the market will leave a supply gap of around 1 million mtpy and 400,000 mtpy in these 2 years.
    Newsprint: oversupply
    At the moment, Chinese newsprint sector is in the stage of oversupply. As Chinese newsprint production capacity increase by 1.07 million mts and half million mts in 2007 and 2008, when 280,000 mts and 390,000 mts of over-capacity will be witnessed.
    The pressure of rising cost forced some of the weak Chinese newsprint makers to close or reduce production, which in fact alleviated the supply pressure. Although it is not easy to tell exactly the scale of curtail, some of the companies are just curtailment examples, for instance: Yueyang Paper, Shixian Paper, Jilin Paper and Heilongjiang Paper, which have reduced their newsprint production

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